A fairly quiet day on the markets today. The real news was Mario Draghi’s comments on the role of the ECB, Merkel issuing yet another “nein”, and the BOE making some truly stupid statements. Lets look at each.
First up super Mario talking today to 25, yes 25, members of the european parliament. The fact only 25 MP’s bothered to turn up is truly extraordinary it itself. Do EU MP’s truely have that lack of respect for the one person who can seriously affect this crisis? Once again I say the politicians must do better. Not for me, not for them but for the millions of people who will be catestrophically affected by a true euro collapse. Mario did offer the vaguest hints however that the lady is indeed for turning and the ECB could be pursaded to bolder action in return for tighter fiscal union. I still think fiscal union is a great idea but the idea 17 member states can get around a table and agree to sign away their budgetary controls to a central body is so absurd it almost makes me laugh. It will never ever happen. Ever. Can you imagine? Germans imposing austerity on the French? We are back to world war territory for sure.
So what was next. Ah yes Merkel saying no yet again to eurobonds and insisting, as per above, the answer is fiscal union. It is not amazing that she said it, its truely amazing the lack of respect she has for anything beyond Germanys borders. By showing absolutely no flexibility she is giving two fingers up to the central banks who attempted to show willing yesterday, two fingers up to just about every world leader and is missing the most blatant point which is either Germany pays through the bailout of its insolvent cousins or it pays ever more when they default taking the worlds banking systems with it. Germany will pay. Mark my words.
Finally we have the BOE saying banks should “preserve capital by not paying bonus’ or dividends” at the same time as saying “the priority must be to keep up lending to businesses” and finally they should be looking to raise capital buffers. These are totally contradictory statements. You can’t on the one hand ask a person for a loan at the same time as telling a person to save more. You do one or the other. Besides the idea there will be any bank bonus’ anywhere this year is, in my opinion, highly dubious. Banks know most won’t be paying much if anything so by default none are worried that by paying very little they are risking key employees leaving. In my experience most bank workers are more happy they still have jobs than worrying about what they’ll be paid at end of year. And all this is before the absolute fury they will invoke with the public at large if they pay a cent amidst global austerity . No bank is that stupid. Surely. Well GS probably is but the less I say about them probably the better.