Eurozone crisis 22/11/11

Another day and still no closer to any kind of solution. Key events of the day:

  • Spains borrowing costs rose yet again to just shy of 7%. New prime minister refused to detail spending plans until full cabinet formed. Me thinks his hand will be forced well before then.
  • IMF revealed new credit line available for countries in distress. A small step in the right direction but way too limited to have any real effect on the crisis.
  • Stability bonds were officially floated and almost as quickly received the Germany verdict – “NEIN”  - while reiterating its call for treaty changes to stem the crisis – details of which we are now expecting on the 9th December.

Treaty changes probably are part of the solution but Germany is making a serious mistake in thinking it has the time for a new treaty to be finalised with all 17 countries. Recession would have long taken hold before it was agreed, killing growth and any chance for material improvement in the debt to GDP ratios in every western economy. As I’ve said before it needs someone to sit down with Merkel, Schauble et all and example calmly what their actions are doing. With the “super” committees debacle yesterday though the one person who maybe could have forced Germanys hand, Obama, frankly lost his hand in the game as if I was Merkel I’d simply ignore him and tell him to get his own house in order before lecturing anyone else on the state of their countries finances.

Frankly still a shambles.

On a related but other note read first few chapters of “Endgame – the  end of the debt supercycle and how it changes everything“. A very interesting read. It makes the case for two likely scenarios in every western country – one option is years of deflation and depression – the alternative high (or hyper) inflation the choice of which we end up in depends largely on if governments decide to print their debts away. Cameron may take particular note as the author reserves a special place for the UK as “the most indebted country in the world” and being the one most likely to suffer from hyperinflation as the government prints. The hedge against this? Well the usual candidates of precious metals, commodities, energy, corporate bonds, and TIPS. Well worth a read in general though if a little sobering at points.